A new account made over $515,000 betting on the U.S. strike against Iran

Comments

Lauren

@cabsav456

19h

Something is going on with Polymarket, and we need to talk about it.

Last night, a brand new account made over $515,000 betting on the U.S. strike against Iran. The trade was placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly.

For years, Polymarket was effectively banned for U.S. users and under active criminal investigation. In 2025:

• Those investigations were closed.
• The platform was legalized.
• It saw $21 billion in trades (up from $9 billion in 2024).

I believe in free markets. But when the President's own family sits on the advisory board of a platform that had its legal hurdles cleared overnight, we need to be asking questions.

Mar 1, 2026 · 2:41 AM UTC

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Drew Stephen

@archidapp

It's assumed that Polymarket doesn't care about insider betting because it leads to better accuracy. It's why it isn't explicitly mentioned in the ToS and something they've always danced around. I recall @coffeebreak_YT did some interesting research into it. There's basically no incentive for them to crack down it (though they claimed to have banned a user because of it. Yes, one whole user). With Don jr. on the advisory, I doubt that any US regulations will be imposed in the near future.

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Lauren

@cabsav456

Yeah I saw that they claimed to have banned someone. I don't believe it. Polymarket seems to be the sketchier of the two because it's not U.S. based and they were being investigated previously; Kalshi is newer and is U.S. based. Of course Don Jr. sits on the board of that one too though.

Thanks for the recommendation! Followed him

990

Habz@_Habz

19h

Without knowing how many people lost in the previous weeks/months this mean little to me

And with how much those close to Trump have been banking, sadly I think $500k is inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. Agreeing should be investigated, just not with this admin.

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Lauren

@cabsav456

18h

My concern isn't even really about the amount of money. This all seems really dangerous from a national security perspective. The prediction markets are definitely vulnerable to foreign influence operations.

It's literally whack a mole with the corruption, and I still just can't believe the Republicans aren't doing shit.

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gs723@gs723

15h

Is Polymarket actually paying these bets out? They have to have some rules against insider trading / suspicious activity??

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Lauren

@cabsav456

13h

They were being investigated for insider trading among other things. They weren’t allowed to do payouts during the investigations and weren’t allowed to operate in the US regardless.

I didn’t want to get into the weed but you should research it yourself - the DOJ and CFTC both dropped the investigations (no explanation) AND Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million in late 2025, allowing it to legally operate in the U.S. Of course 1789 Capital, the Trump Jr. VC firm, led a “double digit” million dollar investment into Polymarket right before that. And now he sits on the advisory board for both Polymarket and Kalshi.

They are most definitely on the “up and up”. There was a huge amount of activity and payouts for the Maduro capture too.

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Mike@pearsonm103

That “brand new account” was created in October 2024 and has 88 predictions based upon your own evidence.

Why lie about something so obvious and easy to debunk? 😂🤷‍♂️

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Lauren

@cabsav456

Already addressed this, wasn't on purpose and everything else still stands. xcancel.com/cabsav456/status/20281…

Lauren

@cabsav456

Yes, my bad. I was researching a bunch of different things and there are several instances where it was a brand new account. This one was not brand new, but this was the screenshot I included. Take out the brand new account portion and everything else stands. Still a huge problem

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AvaPhoenix@avabluephoenix

17h

I'm so behind. What is the difference between gambling and "prediction markets"?

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Lauren

@cabsav456

There basically is none. States are trying to ban Polymarket because people are gambling and losing a lot of money. But the psycho new guy in charge of CFTC is trying to ban states from being able to control it. It’s insane. Here’s the Republican governor of Utah shitting on him.

Governor Cox

@GovCox

Feb 17

Mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don’t remember the CFTC having authority over the “derivative market” of LeBron James rebounds. These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling—pure and simple. They are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah.

Let me be clear, I will use every resource within my disposal as governor of the sovereign state of Utah, and under the Constitution of the United States to beat you in court.

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Aaron Davis

@ADavis4me

19h

Lol, of course someone in the know made a little $. They are corrupt. Not even slightly surprised.

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Lauren

@cabsav456

19h

Apparently this has been happening though. And I had no idea it was previously under investigation and that the investigations were closed, no explanation. And that it was previously illegal but now is legal, again no explanation. Like wtf? Lol

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David Goldfield@dgold113

How is this different than Congress making bank in the stock market? Do you talk about that also?

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Lauren

@cabsav456

Yep!

Lauren

@cabsav456

Feb 25

Several Democrats and all Republicans stood up and clapped when Donald Trump announced a stock trading ban tonight.

Interesting, because Republicans tried to kill their own guy, Josh Hawley's @HawleyMO clean bill — a straightforward ban on trading individual stocks while in office.

It only made it out of committee (8–7) because all 7 Democrats joined him. Every GOP member voted no.

Hawley's bill would've banned the President and VP too (starting in 2028).

It's been collecting dust since July 30, 2025. ⬇️

Now the "ban" being pushed conveniently applies only to Congress — not the Executive.

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DojiCat

@DojiCat4

This post does need a @CommunityNotes at the very least as there appears to be some misinformation

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Lauren

@cabsav456

I’ve addressed this multiple times. The only thing that is incorrect is the fact that this was not a brand new account, which honestly isn’t even relevant to the point I’m trying to make in the post.

Lauren

@cabsav456

Yes, my bad. I was researching a bunch of different things and there are several instances where it was a brand new account. This one was not brand new, but this was the screenshot I included. Take out the brand new account portion and everything else stands. Still a huge problem

290

Anti trust laws@JackHates1Amend

15h

Dude. There were probably 1000+ soldiers and staff AT LEAST that knew about the attack.

Any one of them could text a relative to bet.

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Lauren

@cabsav456

13h

Ok??? Idc who made the bet. Do you not see the problem here?

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Arminius der Cherusker

@herm_melville

Brand new? But „joined oct 2024“?

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Lauren

@cabsav456

Yes, my bad. I was researching a bunch of different things and there are several instances where it was a brand new account. This one was not brand new, but this was the screenshot I included. Take out the brand new account portion and everything else stands. Still a huge problem

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Xeela

@AskXeela

the real scandal isn't the bet - it's that polymarket was "banned" until suddenly it wasn't. follow the regulatory capture.

King Tours Niagara Falls 🚌@KingToursCa

12h

Doesn't every single person placing a bet know that insiders are placing bets also and they know the outcome? So if everyone knows, and is ok with it, what is the harm done?

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Brian Reinert

@BrianReinert1

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